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Economic and dam related articles

Fitch Rates Energy Northwest
$470.7MM Electric Rev Rfdg Bonds 'AA'

by Staff
Earth Times, February 19, 2010

Outlook Positive

NEW YORK - (Business Wire) Fitch Ratings has assigned an 'AA' rating to Energy Northwest (ENW), Washington's electric revenue refunding bonds as follows:

Proceeds from the 2010-A and 2010-B bonds, with maturities through 2018, will be used to refund all remaining ENW variable rate demand bonds. Proceeds from the 2010-C bonds, with a final maturity of 2024, will fund improvements at the Columbia Generating Station. The bonds are expected to price in a negotiated sale Feb. 23 and 24, 2010. The Rating Outlook is Positive.

SECURITY

The Energy Northwest bonds are separately secured by project and each project secured by a payment obligation from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). The output of the Columbia Generating Station (1,150 megawatt [MW] nuclear project) is provided to Bonneville. Projects 1 and 3 are non-operating projects. Payments can be made by Bonneville to Energy Northwest through a combination of credits against customer bills (according to the net billing agreements) or direct cash payments from the BPA Fund. BPA's payments to Energy Northwest are made as an operating expense and are paid prior to BPA's payments to the U.S. Treasury (approximately $6.5 billion in Treasury obligations outstanding).

RATING RATIONALE

KEY RATING DRIVERS BPA continues to face financial pressure related to lower than average hydrological conditions, particularly for the past three years and into fiscal 2010, with sustained low electricity market prices being driven by overall weakened economic conditions for its secondary sales. BPA's rate-setting takes into account anticipated secondary sales.

Secondary revenues derived from the portion of the federal system not allocated under slice contracts are used to offset the rates paid by preference customers in the non-slice products. Rates are established using extensive modeling of potential hydrological conditions but assume some level of secondary revenues based on water conditions and market prices.

In a low water year, these revenues may likely be lower than projected, requiring a rate adjustment to customers. Water levels in fiscal 2009 and 2010 are low, and compounding the problem are low overall market energy prices in the northwest that are likely being influenced by overall economic conditions and low thermal energy prices. BPA has revised downward its initial budgeted estimates of secondary revenues in fiscal 2010 which should prompt the use of reserves to buffer the financial impact. The continued worsening of hydrological conditions in the northwest for this 2009-2010 period, the severity of the loss in secondary revenues thus far, currently estimated at $225 million below 2010 projections (as of first quarter 2010) is a credit concern Fitch will be monitoring.

CREDIT SUMMARY

BPA is the largest of the regional federal power marketing agencies within the U.S. Department of Energy. BPA was created by Congress in 1937 to market electric power from the Bonneville Dam. Congress has since designated BPA to market power from all of the federally owned hydro projects (31) in the Pacific Northwest. BPA sells electric power in a 300,000 square-mile service area and accounts for approximately 33% of the electric power consumed in the region.

Applicable criteria available on Fitch's website at www.fitchratings.com includes:

Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE.


Staff
Fitch Rates Energy Northwest $470.7MM Electric Rev Rfdg Bonds 'AA'
Earth Times, February 19, 2010

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