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Blowin' in the Wind by Dick Watson NW Current, February 28, 2007

Bob Dylan said, "The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind." There are many of us who hope he was right. Specifically, we've been hoping that the energy that is blowin' in the wind can help solve our current energy dilemma.

Given the pressures of increasing fossil fuel costs and the pressing need to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, wind energy has tremendous appeal. Here in the Northwest, more than 1,400 megawatts (MW) of wind capacity has become operational since the first commercial project came online in 1998. An additional 1,600 MW of wind energy is projected to be online by 2009. On an annual energy basis, that's somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 percent of regional electricity use.

While that's pretty impressive, many believe that 3,000 MW is just the tip of the iceberg for wind development in the Northwest. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council's Fifth Power Plan includes a goal to develop 6,000 MW of wind capacity by 2020. In the council's analysis, the importance of wind power derived from its value as a hedge against volatile fossil fuel prices and the possible future costs of carbon emissions.

The goal of 6,000 MW of wind capacity was applauded by some, but it encountered a good deal of skepticism from others. Most of that skepticism derived from the variable nature of wind energy. An electric utility has to match energy generation to demand at all times. Therefore, the utility has to have the capability to adjust overall production minute by minute to accommodate the variation in the energy output of its wind projects. The variation in project output is another source of uncertainty that system operators must manage. When the amount of wind energy is relatively small, this is not considered too great a problem. But when the amount of wind is large, it could become a problem.

There are also issues surrounding the transmission required to bring wind energy, mostly developed in the less populated eastern parts of the region, to the load centers in the west. The general under-investment in transmission of the past several years and the variable nature of wind energy are both issues of concern.

In recognition of these questions, the council included in its action plan several items aimed at resolving the uncertainties surrounding wind development. The items are beginning to bear fruit in the regional Wind Integration Action Plan (WIAP) [See "Current Thinking: Integrating wind," nwcurrent, Aug. 2006].

The seriousness with which the Northwest is taking wind energy is reflected in the development of the WIAP, an effort led by the council and Bonneville Power Administration, and including regional utilities, wind power developers, state energy commissions and other energy professionals. First, the process was guided by a steering committee made up of leaders in the Northwest utility and wind energy industries. Second, the steering committee directed some of their best talent to participate in the technical work groups.

The technical work groups in January submitted to the steering committee an initial draft of the WIAP, which outlines a set of actions that should be undertaken over the next two years.

Following are some of the major points of the WIAP's initial report:
• The plan puts in clear perspective how we ought to think about the role of wind: "...load requirements, not the growth in wind energy, will drive the need for additional peaking capacity. Wind energy is added as a renewable, clean energy resource to lower the fuel consumption of these capacity resources and help secure the economic and environmental benefits of lower fossil fuel [use]."

• "The aggregate cost to the Ôregion' can not be determined at this time, due to the diversity of the size of the utilities and uncertainty over where the wind will be developed. However, based on initial studies, no fundamental technical barriers to achieving the council's target of 6,000 MW of wind, from the perspective of power system operations, were found." This assumes that future wind projects are equipped to control ramp rates and output. (Note: The final report should incorporate wind integration costs from recent Northwest utility studies. For wind penetration in the range of 10 to 20 percent of peak load, the integration costs are in the range of $2 to $12 per megawatt-hour.)

• However, there clearly are institutional barriers. Specifically, to integrate wind into the system: "...more liquid bi-lateral markets, or other means of transferring this [system flexibility] capability are needed to ensure the existing balancing capability is fully available and is used in the most cost-effective manner."

• Existing transmission can accommodate near-term (through 2009) development. The 6,000 MW can be accommodated with "selective" transmission system reinforcements and a combination of firm and non-firm transmission. The latter means that wind operators might not always be able to use transmission as they would like. However, since transmission generally operates at full capacity only a small fraction of the time, the risk should be small.

• Much of the above could be severely hampered unless equitable means of paying for both transmission expansion and the provision of balancing services are found.