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Fishery Managers Expecting Over 300,000 Spring Chinook to Enter Columbia River this Year, 90 Percent Hatchery Fish by Staff Columbia Basin Bulletin, February 2, 2023

Fishery managers are forecasting a return of 13,200 natural origin (wild) fish this year,
matching the 2022 forecast, but nearly half the actual return last year.

Columbia River fishery managers are expecting a larger run of upriver spring Chinook salmon to enter the river this year and cross Bonneville Dam, but barely 10 percent of the salmon would be of natural origin, according to a recently released joint Oregon and Washington report that includes preseason run size forecasts. That compares to actual returns in 2022 when 15.5 percent of the upriver run was of natural origin.

Still, the forecasted overall run size for the upriver fish in 2023 is about 7 percent more than the actual return in 2022. Some 198,600 upriver spring Chinook are forecasted to return this year, while last year's actual return was 185,209 (some 122,900 fish were forecasted to return in 2022). That run of fish included 5,264 upper Columbia River natural origin fish and 23,331 Snake River spring/summer run natural origin Chinook. The 2022 spring Chinook return ranked 12th of all years since 1980, the report says.

Of particular concern, if the forecast proves to be accurate, is the anticipated return this year of natural origin spring/summer fish to the Snake River. Fishery managers are forecasting a return of 13,200 natural origin (wild) fish this year, matching the 2022 forecast, but nearly half the actual return last year.

The 2023 forecast of spring Chinook into the Snake River is 85,900 fish. That's almost 17 percent lower than last year's actual run of 103,025. The 2022 forecast was for a return of 73,400 (13,200 wild) fish. Still, that is 30 percent higher than 2021's actual run of 51,783 (9,480 wild). The 2021 preseason forecast was 40,000 (11,100 wild). The actual return of spring/summer Chinook to the Snake River in 2022 was 119 percent of the recent 10-year average and ranked 11th of all years since 1980.

However, the overall trend for the actual runs of upriver spring Chinook has been on the upward swing. The 2021 actual return of the fish -- both upper Columbia and Snake rivers -- was 91,736. The preseason forecast for 2021 was 75,200 fish.

The 1980s averaged 84,511 fish per year, the 1990s averaged 68,998 fish and a low return was hit in 1995 when just 12,792 upriver fish returned to the river. The average annual return in the 2000s was 209,985, with a high of 439,885 in 2001, and average during the 2010s was 188,618 fish, according to the joint state report.

The report, "2023 Joint Staff Report: Stock Status and Fisheries for Spring Chinook, Summer Chinook, Sockeye, Steelhead and Other Species," was published today, Feb. 2, by the joint Columbia River management staff at the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife and the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. This is the second such report that is used for each hearing by the two-state Columbia River Compact.

Anglers in the lower Columbia may see a surge of spring Chinook returning to tributaries downstream of Bonneville Dam that is 18 percent more than 2022's actual return. Some 109,200 spring Chinook are forecasted to return to the lower river, higher than the 2022 actual return of 89,286 fish and far higher than the 2022 forecast of 74,100.

The overall 2023 forecast for spring Chinook is 307,800 fish for both the upper and lower river. That compares to the actual return last year of 274,495 fish. The 2022 forecast was 197,000 fish.

The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife is attributing the better expectations for the spring Chinook run size on ocean conditions. In a release the agency said:

"Several ocean ecosystem indicators, especially in near-shore areas, were tracking in a manner that generally leads to low ocean survival for some salmon stocks from 2015- 2017 but began to improve in 2018. These indicators include Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), upwelling, sea-surface temperature, and plankton abundance. Based on these indicators, adults returning in 2023 generally experienced improved ocean conditions during their ocean migration period."

The U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee released in December 2022 its early run forecasts for spring chinook, summer chinook and sockeye salmon. As it did last year, TAC will also soon release its forecasts for coho salmon and steelhead.

Early each year TAC forecasts salmon and steelhead runs in the Columbia River and its major tributaries and during spring and summer months continues to refine the forecasted numbers (in-season forecast changes) for harvest managers as actual returns are recorded at Bonneville Dam.

For detailed information regarding TAC's 2023 early season forecasts, see the joint report or go here.

Upriver summer Chinook expectations in 2023 are higher at 84,800 fish, which if accurate would be the 4th best since 1980. Last year's actual run tallied 78,444 fish (7th best since 1980) and the 2022 forecast was 56,300. The 2021 actual return was similar at 56,800 fish, but far below the 2021 preseason forecast of 78,800 summer chinook. Chinook salmon crossing Bonneville Dam are counted as spring chinook up through June 15 and then are considered summer chinook until the end of August. The 2022 adult return was 116% of the average of returns observed since 2001, and more than four times the average return during the years 1980-2000.

Expectations for returns to the Columbia of sockeye salmon are less optimistic when compared to last year's actual record run of 664,935 fish, which was the best return of sockeye since 1938. TAC is predicting a run size this year nearly one-third lower at 234,500 fish, which is 73 percent of the 10-year average. That's still higher than the 2022 runs size forecast of 198,700 sockeye. The 2021 actual return was 152,309 fish and the preseason forecast was 155,600 fish. All sockeye are upriver fish.

TAC breaks sockeye returns down by major tributary.

Some 2,600 sockeye are expected in the Snake River where the fish is listed as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act. That's higher than last year's actual return of 2,329 endangered salmon and much higher than the 2022 forecast for Snake River sockeye of just 200 fish. The 2023 forecast is 230 percent of the 10-year average. The 2021 Snake River actual run was 3,531 fish at Bonneville, while the 2021 preseason forecast was 700 fish.

Most sockeye that pass Bonneville Dam head to the Okanagan River where the 2023 preseason forecast is 187,400 fish. The 2022 actual run was 513,317, far higher than the preseason forecast of 127,300. The 2021 actual run size was 105,493 and the 2021 preseason forecast was 127,300.

Other mid-Columbia tributaries with sockeye runs are: